🔗 Share this article A Prediction Market Trader Earned $436,000 from Wagers Predicting Maduro's Downfall. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. An individual made nearly half a million dollars on the ouster of the Venezuelan leader shortly prior to it was made public, raising questions about potential gains made from non-public details of the event. Changing Odds in Predictions Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a blockchain-based service, that the leader would be no longer in control by the close of the month surged in the hours before President Donald Trump announced on the weekend that the Venezuelan leader had been taken into custody. A single trader, which registered on the site last month and placed four wagers, all on the Venezuelan situation, profited a total of $436K from a initial bet of over $32,000. It remains unclear. The anonymous account had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Market Signals Before Announcement Market statistics shows that traders put the odds of a political change at just a low 6.5 percent in the afternoon of Friday, January 2nd. However the odds had jumped to 11% by shortly before midnight and skyrocketed in the morning of Saturday, pointing to a sudden change in betting activity immediately prior to the social media post was made. "That trade has all the characteristics of a transaction based on non-public details," said a financial reform advocate. A small number of other platform users also made significant sums from similar wagers. Legal Questions Emerges Some lawmakers are starting to take note. A new rule presented on the start of the week seeks to ban government employees from placing bets on prediction markets if they have "insider details" related to a wager. Industry Context Forecasting platforms have become increasingly popular in the United States, with users able to wager on everything from elections to politics. Prediction markets faced scrutiny under the last presidential term. But it has received a warmer welcome during the Trump presidency. Insider trading is against the law in the securities markets, but there are fewer regulations in the prediction market industry. A spokesperson for a competing service said their site "has clear rules against trading on insider information of any form."